June 24, 2026 – November 4, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats Sweep | 64.5% | 64.5¢ | 35.5¢ |
| D Senate, R House | 2% | 2¢ | 98¢ |
| R Senate, D House | 28.5% | 28.5¢ | 71.5¢ |
| Republicans Sweep | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Other | 1% | 1¢ | 99¢ |
This market determines the outcome of the 2026 United States midterm elections regarding control of the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. The selection representing the winning party configuration will resolve to “Yes”, while all other selections will resolve to “No”. * **House Control:** A party achieves control by winning a majority of voting seats. If control remains ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the House selected after the elections. * **Senate Control:** A party achieves control by securing more than half of the voting Senate members, or exactly half of the voting members plus the tie-breaking vote of the Vice President. If control remains ambiguous, the market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the first Senate Majority Leader selected after the elections. * **Party Affiliation:** Candidate affiliation is determined by their ballot listing at the time the elections are conclusively called. Any candidate without a Democratic or Republican ballot listing will be assigned to the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with. Final grading requires a unanimous consensus from the Associated Press (AP), Fox News, and NBC. If these three sources fail to reach a consensus, the market will resolve strictly based on official election certifications.
