June 23, 2026 – November 4, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic Party | 93.5% | 93.5¢ | 6.5¢ |
| Republican Party | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
This market resolves based on which party holds a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives following the 2026 midterm elections held on November 3, 2026. The resolution is determined by the official final certified results from the House Clerk's office and state election authorities as of November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A majority is defined as 218 or more seats out of 435 total House seats. Each outcome represents an independent Yes/No proposition: the market resolves YES for the party that wins a majority of seats, and NO for any party that does not. If no single party achieves 218 seats, the outcome that resolves YES is whichever party holds the most seats. The primary resolution source is the U.S. House of Representatives Clerk's official election results; a consensus of major news organizations' final certified tallies may serve as a secondary source.
