October 19, 2026 – October 19, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin has the highest return | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| Gold has the highest return | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| S&P 500 has the highest return | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
This market resolves based on the percentage price return of each asset measured from the close of 31 December 2025 to the close of 31 December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Bitcoin return is calculated using the price of BTC/USD on major spot exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, or Bloomberg Terminal consensus). Gold return is calculated using the spot price of gold per troy ounce in USD (London Bullion Market Association or CME COMEX settlement price). S&P 500 return is calculated using the closing price of the SPX index (S&P Dow Jones Indices official close). Each outcome resolves YES if that asset's percentage return from 31 December 2025 close to 31 December 2026 close is strictly higher than the other two assets' returns; NO otherwise. For example, if Bitcoin returns 45%, Gold returns 12%, and S&P 500 returns 18%, only the Bitcoin outcome resolves YES. If two or more assets tie for the highest return, all tied outcomes resolve YES. The primary resolution source is Bloomberg Terminal for all three assets, with CME COMEX and official S&P Dow Jones Indices as authoritative fallbacks. Credible financial reporting consensus (Reuters, WSJ, Financial Times) may be used if primary sources are unavailable.
