October 16, 2026 – October 16, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| By 31 Dec 2026 | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| By 30 Jun 2027 | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| After 31 Dec 2028 or never | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
This market resolves YES if Tesla, Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) jointly announce through official press release, SEC filing, or formal public statement by both companies' authorized representatives that they have agreed to merge or that one company will acquire the other. The announcement must constitute a definitive, binding agreement or letter of intent signed by authorized officers of both entities, not merely speculation, discussion of possibilities, or statements of intent to explore a transaction. A formal merger agreement filed with the SEC, a definitive acquisition agreement, or a joint press release from both companies' official channels confirming the transaction terms qualifies. Preliminary negotiations, board discussions not yet formalized, or statements by individual executives (including Elon Musk) expressing personal interest do not qualify unless accompanied by an official joint announcement. The primary resolution source is official SEC filings (8-K, S-4, merger proxy statements) or simultaneous official press releases from Tesla and SpaceX. Credible reporting from major financial news outlets (Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Wall Street Journal) confirming the official announcement may serve as a secondary source.
