July 4, 2026 – August 4, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Russia–Ukraine war end by 31 December 2026? | 10% | 10¢ | 90¢ |
This market resolves YES if a formal ceasefire agreement, peace treaty, or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed and formally adopted by both governments and takes effect by 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2026. The agreement must be publicly confirmed by official statements from both the Russian government and the Ukrainian government, or by a formal international body such as the United Nations or OSCE acting as a witness or guarantor. Mere negotiations, statements of progress, temporary local truces, humanitarian corridors, or prisoner exchanges do NOT qualify. A near-miss example: a draft agreement announced by negotiators but not yet signed by both heads of state does not count. The PRIMARY resolution source is official government statements from Russia and Ukraine, supplemented by reporting from Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, or other major international news agencies confirming the formal adoption and effective date of the agreement.
