October 19, 2026 – October 19, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| By 31 December 2026 | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| By 30 June 2027 | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
| Never | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
This market resolves YES if the United States formally announces and implements an end to its naval blockade of Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, otherwise NO. A naval blockade end is defined as an official U.S. government statement (from the President, Secretary of State, Secretary of Defense, or official Department of Defense/State Department spokesperson) confirming that U.S. naval forces have ceased enforcement of restrictions on maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports, combined with verifiable cessation of U.S. naval interdiction operations in the relevant waters for a continuous period of at least 7 days. This qualifies only if both the formal announcement and the operational cessation occur by the deadline. Mere statements of intent to negotiate, temporary pauses in enforcement, or humanitarian corridors do not qualify. A near-miss example: the U.S. announces a 30-day review of blockade policy but does not formally end it by the deadline. The blockade end must be definitively established through official U.S. government channels or, if those are ambiguous, through consensus reporting by major credible news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Wall Street Journal) confirming both the announcement and operational end. Primary source: official statements from whitehouse.gov, state.gov, or defense.gov; secondary source: credible international news reporting.
