August 13, 2026 – October 29, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| No Change | 63% | 63¢ | 37¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| 25 bps increase | 38% | 38¢ | 62¢ |
This market resolves based on the change, measured in basis points, to the Bank of Canada’s target for the overnight rate resulting from its October 2026 interest rate announcement, compared with the rate in effect immediately before that announcement. Resolution will use official Bank of Canada information, including the statement or release associated with the October 2026 interest rate announcement scheduled for October 28, 2026, according to the Bank of Canada’s official calendar. The market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada publishes a statement or release from that October 2026 decision containing the relevant information. If the specified rate is stated as a range with an upper and lower bound, the change to the upper bound will be used for resolution. If the rate moves by an amount that does not correspond to one of the displayed options, the change will be rounded as follows. Any increase or decrease of less than 25 bps will be treated as a 25 bps move. For example, a 10 bps increase or decrease will count as a 25 bps increase or decrease. Any increase or decrease greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps. If the amount is exactly halfway between two 25 bps increments, it will be rounded away from 0. For example, a 37.5 bps increase or decrease will count as a 50 bps increase or decrease. Options labeled “Increase” or “Decrease” include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed but occurs before the start of the next scheduled announcement, the market will resolve using the outcome of the postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or delayed such that no decision is announced before the start of the next scheduled announcement, the market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate that do not result from the specified announcement will not count toward resolution.
