July 2, 2026 – December 18, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 15 million copies | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 15–20 million copies | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 20–25 million copies | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 25–30 million copies | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 30–35 million copies | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 35 million+ copies or more | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
This market resolves based on the total number of copies of Grand Theft Auto VI sold across all platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, and PC) during the first 30 calendar days following the game's official worldwide release. The 30-day window begins at 12:00 AM ET on the official launch date and closes at 11:59 PM ET on the 30th day. Sales figures include all retail and digital sales reported by Rockstar Games, major platform holders (Sony, Microsoft, Valve), and major retailers. The primary resolution source is official statements from Rockstar Games or Take-Two Interactive (the publisher) announcing first-month sales figures. If an official figure is not published, resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting from major gaming industry analysts and outlets (including but not limited to Newzoo, Superdata, NPD Group, and major gaming press). Estimates derived from tracking services, Steam data, or console platform data alone do not qualify as definitive unless corroborated by official publisher statements or multiple independent analyst reports. Pre-orders are included in the first 30-day count only if they are fulfilled and activated within the 30-day window.
