August 7, 2026 – September 6, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 nations | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 2-3 nations | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| 4 or more nations | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| Unclassified | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
Resolves on the number of individual G20 member countries (EU excluded as a collective) that have officially launched a retail CBDC for public use by 23:59 UTC on October 31, 2026. Launched = available for general public transactions, not pilot/test. Primary sources: G20 central banks/governments, Reuters, Bloomberg, BIS, IMF. Unclassified resolves if undeterminable or sources contradict.
