July 23, 2026 – September 7, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0¢ | 100¢ |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if IMF Portwatch reports a 7-day moving average of transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Strait of Hormuz of 60 or more on any date between the creation of this market and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels. Ships that are not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be counted. This market will settle as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a qualifying 7-day moving average of at least 60 transit calls, or after data has been published for the final date in the specified period without any qualifying value. If data for August 31, 2026, has not been published within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, the market will resolve using the data available at that time. Any revisions to previously published data made during this market's timeframe will be taken into account. However, a value that previously qualified will remain qualifying even if it is later revised. Revisions made after data for August 31, 2026, has been published will not be considered. If there is an obvious data integrity issue, such as a clerical or similar error, the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) following the initial publication of the affected data to allow time for corrections. Data integrity issues apply only to errors in the published data itself and do not include differences between IMF Portwatch and other sources. Resolution will be based on the Strait of Hormuz transit calls data published by IMF Portwatch, including both the online chart and downloadable datasets available at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
