US ends Iran naval blockade by...?

Resolution

On July 13, 2026, President Trump declared that the United States would reimpose its naval blockade of Iran, aimed at Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to "Yes" if, between the moment this market is created and 11:59 PM ET on the specified date, the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, makes a public, official announcement of the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States' naval blockade on Iranian ships and the ships of Iranian customers. If no such announcement is made, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement counts if it conveys that the United States will generally stop blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and Iranian customers. This includes an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions stay in place (for instance, the imposition of fees). An announcement does not count if it reflects only a limited or partial change that falls short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, such as an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. To count, an announcement must be a declarative statement of one of the following: the United States government's present termination or suspension of the blockade; a termination or suspension of the blockade that already occurred but had not previously been announced; or the United States government's definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must identify the end or suspension of the blockade clearly and unambiguously. Statements that only allude to, refer to, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not count. The announcement does not need to use any particular terminology or mention the end of a blockade by name. An announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the continuation of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline counts, as long as the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be delivered through official channels by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a setting not intended for official communication do not count. The following do not count: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements that have not been confirmed as official; Statements by anyone not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or carry out an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements describing an end to the blockade that is prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional, rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to "Yes," even if the announcement is later reversed or the blockade does not actually end in practice. The resolution source will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or official representatives of the United States government.