Who will have the top-ranked AI model before 2028?

Resolution

This market resolves based on the most widely recognized AI model ranking as of 11:59 PM ET on 31 December 2027. The primary resolution source is the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard), which ranks large language models by Elo rating derived from human pairwise comparisons. If the LMSYS leaderboard is unavailable or discontinued, resolution falls back to a consensus of credible AI research publications and benchmarks (including but not limited to Hugging Face Model Hub rankings, academic papers on LLM performance, and major AI lab announcements) as reported by reputable tech media (Reuters, Bloomberg, The Verge, MIT Technology Review, or similar). The top-ranked model is the single model with the highest Elo rating or equivalent ranking metric on the chosen source at the specified moment. A model counts as 'top-ranked' only if it holds the #1 position; a model that briefly led but fell to #2 or lower does not qualify. The entity credited is the organization that trained and released the model (e.g., OpenAI for GPT models, Anthropic for Claude, Meta for Llama, Google for Gemini, xAI for Grok, or other named AI labs). Each outcome represents one organization and resolves YES if that organization's model is ranked #1 at the deadline, otherwise NO.

• Resolution MethodManual Resolution
• Market TypeOrderBook
• Market End TimeOctober 8, 2026
• Contract Address0xee05dd95c0fc95b367e72d6120c2e89e298ea7bb