August 10, 2026 – October 10, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yulia Navalnaya | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 5% | 5¢ | 95¢ |
| UNRWA | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| Pope Leo XIV | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| Donald Trump | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
This market will be settled based on the recipient of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize officially announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. The listed person or entity that receives the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will resolve to "Yes", and all other listed outcomes will resolve to "No". If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the listed individual whose last name, or the entity whose name, comes first alphabetically will resolve to "Yes", and all other listed recipients will resolve to "No". If none of the listed individuals or entities receive the prize, all listed outcomes will resolve to "No". If the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has not been officially announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, all listed outcomes will resolve to "No". The market will use the first official announcement issued by the Norwegian Nobel Committee as its resolution source.
