August 7, 2026 – September 6, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| A new international treaty on AI is formally established. | 79.2% | 79.2¢ | 20.8¢ |
| A dedicated global regulatory body for AI is formally established. | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| Both a treaty AND a global regulatory body are established. | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| Neither is formally established. | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
| Unclassified | 50% | 50¢ | 50¢ |
Resolves on the formal establishment of either a new international AI-governance treaty (signed/entered into force by at least 10 UN member states) OR a dedicated global regulatory body for AI (intergovernmental org/new agency with global mandate, charter adopted and operations commenced) by 23:59 UTC on September 30, 2026. Primary sources: UN, G7, G20, OECD, or Reuters/AP/Bloomberg. Unclassified wins if none clearly apply.
