July 22, 2026 – January 1, 2027
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 97% | 97¢ | 3¢ |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially makes a foldable smartphone available for purchase by the general public on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If this does not happen, the market will resolve to "No." For this market, a product counts as released only when it is available for public purchase within the specified timeframe. An announcement, reveal, or unveiling alone will not be enough. Any foldable smartphone officially released by Apple before the deadline will meet this market’s criteria, even if it is not branded or named as an iPhone. Resolution will rely primarily on official statements and information from Apple. If needed, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to determine the outcome.
