July 3, 2026 – January 1, 2028
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 91.5% | 91.5¢ | 8.5¢ |
| OpenAI | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
This market resolves YES for the first company between OpenAI and Anthropic to complete an initial public offering (IPO) and begin trading on a major public stock exchange (NYSE, NASDAQ, or equivalent major exchange in another jurisdiction) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. An IPO is defined as the first sale of stock by a private corporation to the public, resulting in the company's shares being listed and tradable on a recognized exchange. A SPAC merger, direct listing, or other alternative public listing method counts as an IPO for this purpose. The company must have filed its registration statement with the relevant securities regulator and completed the offering such that shares are actively trading on the exchange. Announcements of IPO plans, regulatory filings, or underwriter selection do not qualify; the offering must be completed and trading must have commenced. If both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar day, the market resolves YES for whichever company's shares begin trading first (by time of day). If neither company has completed an IPO by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves NO for both outcomes. Primary resolution source: official SEC filings (Form S-1, Form F-1) and exchange announcements from NYSE or NASDAQ, or equivalent regulatory filings and exchange announcements in other jurisdictions. Credible financial news reporting (Bloomberg, Reuters, Wall Street Journal) confirming the IPO completion and first day of trading may serve as a secondary source.
