October 14, 2026 – October 15, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPOs first | 65% | 65¢ | 35¢ |
| Anthropic IPOs first | 28% | 28¢ | 72¢ |
| Neither IPOs by the deadline | 15% | 15¢ | 85¢ |
This market resolves YES for the first company to complete an initial public offering (IPO) on a major stock exchange (NYSE, NASDAQ, or equivalent tier-1 exchange in another country) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. An IPO is defined as the first sale of stock by a private corporation to the public, resulting in the company's shares being listed and tradable on a public exchange. The IPO must be formally completed and the company's shares must begin trading on the exchange; announcement of an IPO plan, SEC filing, or regulatory approval alone does NOT qualify. The resolution source is the official announcement from the company and confirmation via the relevant stock exchange's official listing records. If both companies IPO on the same calendar day, the market resolves YES for whichever company's shares begin trading first (by earliest trading time in ET). A credible consensus of major financial news outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Wall Street Journal) may serve as a secondary source if exchange records are temporarily unavailable.
