July 21, 2026 – September 17, 2026
| Outcome | Chance | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | 100¢ | 0¢ |
This market resolves to "Yes" if the upper bound of the Federal Reserve's target federal funds rate is increased by exactly 25 basis points following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for September 15–16, 2026. Any other outcome, including no change or a rate change of any other magnitude, will resolve this market to "No". For the purposes of this market, the Federal Reserve's interest rate is defined as the upper bound of the target federal funds range. If the announced change to the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is not exactly 25 basis points, including changes of 12.5 basis points or any other amount, the market will resolve to "No". No rounding will be applied. The primary resolution source will be the official FOMC statement released following the September 15–16, 2026 meeting. The target federal funds rate and any changes to it are also published on the Federal Reserve's official website. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant FOMC statement is released. If no statement has been issued by the end date of the next scheduled FOMC meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
